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Hotshot Wharton professor triggers $34 trillion debt meltdown by 2025 as mortgage rates rise above 7%: 'It's a threat to the next administration'

 

Hotshot Wharton professor triggers $34 trillion debt meltdown by 2025 as mortgage rates rise above 7%: 'It's a threat to the next administration'



One of the nameplates adorning the offices of Ivy League business schools is Joao Gomez. A Wharton Business School finance professor, Gomez is issuing a warning cry that many of his colleagues have so far chosen to ignore: America's mounting public debt mountain.

Some might call Professor Gomez an up-and-comer: he was appointed senior vice dean for research in 2021, adding the University of Pennsylvania's Marshall Bloom Prize in 2018 to his CV.

Experts aren't afraid to break away from the pack if they have to push presidential candidates for some answers. Gomez says he is "probably" more concerned than his peers about government debt, but refuses to stay silent on a worsening problem that he believes will destroy the global economy.

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Gomez predicted that America's $34 trillion debt burden could crash world financial markets as early as next year -- should the president-elect announce more expensive policies.

And remember the UK mortgage disaster after the disastrous premiership under Prime Minister Liz Truss? It's also on the cards, as Gomez said rates could rise to 7 percent "or higher" if the subject is broached by Washington.

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Warning is not going it alone. Alarm bells have been ringing since the beginning of the year:JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says there will be one.Market "Rebellion" Back to the problemBank of America says CEO Brian Moynihan.It's time to stop "defining" the problem And do something about it.

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This fear extends beyond Wall Street.The Black Swan Writer Naseem Talib says that the economy is in a state of flux."Death Spiral" While Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says that it is past time."Adult conversations" about financial responsibility.

But even so, presidential candidates likely won't come up with a promise of how they'll lower the debt-to-GDP ratio to a more palatable figure (experts are currently predicting that will reach190% by 2050.)

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I wish it was a big issue, but I'm not sure it's in either party's interest to make it a big issue," Gomez said.. "As we discuss commitments about: 'What are we going to do with taxes and programs', it will be important to put it in the context of: 'Can we afford it?'"

"It's a defining moment in history for us to say: 'OK, what are our choices, what can we possibly do, who has the better plan?' I suspect that neither party is interested in this and it will all probably be swept under the carpet."

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In fact, while one side may have to make some unpopular decisions to deal with this problem, it is a problem created by both of them. Bank of America Research's Flow Show team, led by investment strategist Michael Hartnett, estimated in February that the deficits under Presidents Trump and Biden would be the largest since Franklin D. Roosevelt in the 1930s. are

Both Trump and Biden tackled a battered economy while trying to navigate a global pandemic. FDR, of course, was stoking the Great Depression and then overseeing America's entry into World War II.

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Gomez believes that regardless of who contributed to the mess, one side will have to take responsibility for unraveling it: "We're going to have to deal with it towards the end of the decade."

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Obviously, this could affect the next administration. If they come up with big tax cuts or another big fiscal stimulus plan, the markets could revolt, interest rates could rise there and we could face a crisis in 2025. Well done, I'm sure we'll be there by the end of the decade somehow."


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